Donald Trump had long foreseen that his MAGA supporters would come to his defense if he was indicted. However, what has become evident over the weekend is that the Republican Party as a whole may also rally behind him.
When the former president announced that he expected to be arrested on Tuesday and urged his base to protest, former Vice President Mike Pence criticized the case as a "political prosecution," House Speaker Kevin McCarthy denounced it as an "outrageous abuse of power by a radical DA," and Sen.
Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) dismissed it as evidence of Democrats' fear of Trump, as the Manhattan district attorney is expected to pursue a criminal charge against him for his handling of a hush money payment during his 2016 campaign.
On Saturday, Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur and unlikely presidential candidate, brought up the issue of Trump's impending indictment during the campaign. He urged other Republican candidates to join him in demanding that prosecutors stop the "political persecution through prosecution" of Trump.
Trump's campaign saw this as an opportunity to make the indictment a test for the other candidates. They warned that anyone who didn't defend the former president would be labeled a leftist sympathizer. Even some of Trump's critics in the GOP could see that he was getting away with everything.
Michael Brodkorb, a former deputy chair of the Minnesota Republican Party and a long-time Trump critic, said, "He's now the Teflon president. He's built his entire political empire on being a victim and a martyr, and this is just another example."
Throughout the Trump administration, Trump has managed to turn scandal after scandal to his advantage. Sometimes he has succeeded, as with the Access Hollywood tape, which did not have the impact many expected. Other times, such as with the aftermath of the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, he has struggled.
Nevertheless, he has always survived. The expected indictment will once again test his resilience, but the timing may work in his favor. If he is arrested this week, it could once again center the early stages of the presidential primary around him, just as other high-profile Republicans consider launching their own campaigns.
Many Republicans believe that the left is trying to discredit Trump and that the indictment will not affect his chances. Some even believe that a Trump-DeSantis ticket would be the best possible outcome for the country.
While the indictment may not have an immediate impact on national polls, it could lead to a short-term rush of support for Trump, particularly in terms of fundraising. Despite the drama and scandals that seem to follow Trump, he is likely to benefit from an otherwise unfriendly political environment.
According to an individual, small donations to Trump's campaign have decreased, which they believe will motivate supporters and prove that there is a witch hunt against him.
On right-wing social media platforms, some Trump supporters have been discussing the benefits of violent versus nonviolent protests, including a potential trucker strike or bank run, while others are warning of a deep state "trap." Unlike Trump's legal challenges in Fulton County and the Jan. 6 probe, the New York case is being brought by a Manhattan district attorney, which many Republicans view as a center for left-wing excesses.
Republican pollster Whit Ayres believes that initially, Republicans will rally around Trump, but if he faces multiple indictments, primary voters may see him as having too much "baggage." However, Ayres admits that no one can fully predict how the situation will play out since it has never happened before.
Some critics of Trump are worried that the case against him may not be strong enough, and that if he beats it, he will become even more emboldened. Former Republican Representative Peter Meijer of Michigan, who lost his primary last year after voting to impeach Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 riot, believes that the Democrats' efforts to bring Trump down will only help him in his primary.
If he wins, however, it will help the Democrats by ensuring that the weakest GOP candidate makes it to the general election. Pence, who has been one of Trump's most vocal GOP critics, declined to criticize him on Saturday, saying that no one is above the law and that he is confident Trump can take care of himself.
However, Pence's allies have privately argued that Trump is likely to face more indictments related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election. They believe that Pence is trying to keep Trump at arm's length while still being empathetic to the concerns of the Republican base.
The more serious potential indictment is in Atlanta, and Pence is expected to make it clear that right is right and wrong is wrong. Some believe that Trump may be overplaying his hand with his call to protest and his rally in Texas, and if there are no protests or if the crowds are small, it will show that the Trump movement is sputtering.
It is also possible that Republicans who are focused on electability will see Trump's indictment as untenable in a general election, especially after his loss in 2020 and a disappointing midterm.
Former Colorado Republican Party chair and party strategist, Dick Wadhams, predicts that some of Trump's supporters will eventually realize that the legal actions against him will directly impact his ability to win a general election.
He believes that there is a real possibility that Trump will be bogged down by these legal actions throughout the entire campaign. However, the biggest concern for some Republicans is that an indictment could seriously harm Trump and the GOP just when the party needs to win back independents and moderate Republicans who turned away from them in 2020.
The sight of an indicted former president or the protests it may trigger could be painful reminders of his time in office. Republican strategist and co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, Mike Madrid, believes that while an indictment may further energize Trump's base, it will not benefit the party in the general election. He warns that the intensity of a dwindling base is not a sign of a growing movement, but rather a sign of a collapsing dwarf star.
